1. Home
  2. /
  3. Tutorials
  4. /

Kelly betting strategy gains its massive popularity amongst Kenyan gamblers considering that this betting strategy is able to show the value of the bet. As discussed earlier in value betting strategy, it is pretty clear that value is an important aspect in betting as this enables the punter to determine the long-run profitability of the bet before they wager. In all betting markets, the important factor is making a profit ultimately not just winning in accumulator bets and calling it a day! Thus value bets guarantee ultimate profits and using the value betting calculation of the Kelly betting strategy it is possible to calculate the value of your selections. Basically, a value bet is the probability of the selection happening being higher than the probability set by the betting site through the provided odds. Applying the Kelly betting strategy entails the punter getting a positive or negative value percentage where the positive value simply implies it is a value bet while the negative value outcome simply depicts low value hence not worth wagering in such bets regardless of their impact on your total odd. However, the main aspect that makes Kelly betting strategy pretty popular is the betting strategy’s ability to apply the mathematical formula in getting the appropriate betting amount. The Kelly betting strategy also works out the expected return value from the particular stake. The application of Kelly betting strategy is kind of straightforward and it is quite effective when it comes to its application in betting but the main issue comes in during the stake amount proportionality with the winning possibility. According to the Kelly betting strategy the higher, the probability of winning the greater the expected wager amount since high winning probability odds are usually relatively low. According to the Kelly strategy’s inventor, J.L. Kelly in 1956, the Kelly betting strategy was meant to increase the potential return value for any bet or investment and it is more applicable in sports betting scenarios. For you to be well versed with Kelly betting strategy, you ought to be well knowledgeable on: what is Kelly betting strategy, calculating the Kelly betting criterion, Kelly formula for staking, the benefits of using Kelly betting strategy, and all of these are covered within this Kelly betting strategy review. So walk with me to get the appropriate Kelly betting strategy information.

How Kelly betting strategy works

First, note that in Kelly betting strategy an assumption is made that the punter can predict the most favorable winning probability. Hence the gambler is kind of expected to have prior knowledge on the possibility of the match outcome. To be more precise, one can consider calculating using the 60% mathematical betting strategy to increase the chances of having a more ideal selection on their probability. Then having the almost right probability with you, you are good to apply the Kelly betting formulae to calculate stake amount and possible win as per the Kelly betting strategy; (bp-q)/b=f.

“b” is the multiple of available odds on the bet in question (the Decimal odds -1). For instance, a bet with an odd of 3, the multiple of the odd (that’s b) becomes 2.

“P” refers to the probability of the bet winning. That is basically the probability of success.

“q” refers to the probability of the bet losing that’s  the probability of failure (i.e. 1-p)

Then the “f” represents the wager amount you should use in this particular bet scenario. For instance consider a bet with the decimal odd being 3 and a winning probability of 35%, applying Kelly’s formula we get; ((3*0.35)-0.65) / 2 = 0.4. You can see that the probability of losing is higher thus the expected wager amount is set to be at 40% of the punter’s betting wallet.

Kelly betting strategy recommendations

The Kelly formula is best effected on betting in games which occur regularly with the same winning and loss probabilities. The same is applied in the case of any other investment in which the Kelly strategy is applied. Another important factor to consider for Kelly betting strategy to work is the positive edge on the betting value. The selections must have positive betting values a scenario which depicts to experts how the betting strategy is even more embedded on other betting strategies basing most of its application on mathematical betting strategies and the value betting strategies. Hence it is recommendable that you also take your time and go through the other betting strategies under this betting guide to learn on calculating expected values, getting winning probabilities and the expected value calculation all of which are applied under the Kelly betting strategy although not mentioned. Kelly betting can be applied in any betting market be it virtual betting, casino betting, sports betting or live betting but it was initially designed to suit only sports betting. Nevertheless, you may not have to panic on the application of the Kelly betting strategy as there are several Kelly mathematical formula online calculators meant to ease the wagering process for the average gambler.

Kelly betting strategy conclusion

Kelly betting strategy is still the darling to most pro gamblers despite its complexities, and odd to winning probability ratio. I bet this is due to the seemingly simple application process of the betting strategy and ability to execute three functionalities at a go that’s; get the bet amount, get the possible return value and finally get value bets hence this is a more comprehensive betting strategy.

Related articles


Betting using betting strategies has been receiving huge support ...


Amongst all betting strategies, corner betting strategy is the le...


With recent increased popularity in betting in Kenya, most gamble...


Spread betting can win you a lot of money once applied appropriat...

To comment please log in

Back to the list