The most essential aspect of betting be it in sports betting, casino betting, live betting, virtual betting or any other betting that you may come across is the value of the bet. Before you wager on a specific team or maybe include the team in your accumulator bet, ensure that the selection results to some value not just adding to the odds to increase the possible win without adding any strength to your bet slip. Most punters get excited by the huge cash on the possible win slot and they forget to determine the value percentage of these different betting teams entailed in that particular wager.
Value bets are more favorable and profiting once applied as single bets with whichever stake as multi bets having high value bets may be failed by selection with less value. Do not confuse the expected value and value bets/ value betting strategy. Expected value is not a betting strategy as this is the calculation of what amount of money the gambler expects to profit from a bet inconsiderate of the value of the specific selections.
Both value bets and expected value are essential betting aids and they determine the punter’s winning potential but they do differ a great deal when it comes to application and calculation as the expected value is the winning probability minus the loosing probability while value bet entails the value of a specific team’s odd and not the total odd.
The betting value/ value bet implies the real probability of the outcome which differs with the betting site’s set probability that’s through the odds. To understand the concept of value bet, and differentiate value betting from expected value we shall touch on the explanations and calculation parts of both value bet and expected value.
Value betting is more of a mathematical strategy although its design is quite different from the normal betting math applied under mathematical betting strategy considering that the punter has to make an instincts guided prediction before doing the math. However in mathematical strategies, the punter is expected to use formulas to determine the winning team, wager amount and anything else the punter may need to decide on.
In other words, under mathematical betting strategy there isn’t prior bettor’s opinion or betting guess! What is value betting? What is expected value? How to calculate value bets and expected values? Detailed response to these queries are what you are about to witness under this review.
Any punter must know how to calculate expected value of the bets they wager for them to be able to find value bet odds and calculate the values of the bets. Expected value can be applied in betting scenarios, Trading or any other avenue involving chances of incurring a loss and also profit making.
The expected value is basically calculated by getting the positive side and subtracting the loss expected value. By taking total expected win amount multiplied by probability of winning then use the same win amount as a possible loss amount multiplied by the probability of losing thus getting the negative possibility of the bet. That’s:
Expected value = (Amount won per bet * probability of winning) – (Amount lost per bet * probability of losing)
For the very experienced gamblers, they must know that betting on value bets is very profitable in the long run. A scenario most bookmakers usually avoid and fight to the extreme of their capabilities as they ensure that the margin of the odds adjusts with the expected value reduction. This means that in most bets, bookmakers will try and ensure that the expected value and the bet value go negative hence making staking on these mostly be done by bettors not well informed of the bet value or expected value issue.
Value betting entails the gambler identifying odds which reflect more potential than the betting site’s predetermined value that’s offer from bookmaker reflects a lower probability than the actual probability. The bet value is calculated using the formula:
Bet value = (Actual probability * odd) – 100%
For instance two bookmakers may offer different value betting opportunities to punters such as:
Betting site A: (50% * 1.90) – 100% = –5%
This betting site is offering less than the true betting value hence a bad option to wager on.
Betting site B: (50% * 2.10) – 100% = 5%
This is a cool value bet opportunity and the thing punters ought to be searching for.
No betting site will intentionally offer value bet since this will lead to them paying a lot of money to bet winners.
Hence the betting sites try their best to ensure their odds are below the positive bet value. To identify a value always ensure that you meet the basic guidelines; Specialize, be well versed with probabilities, set on odds and price ups, be persistent amongst many other guidelines.
VALUE BET CONCLUSION
In betting, every gambler is trying to get returns and most importantly value of their money. Most gamblers fail to make any significant profits out of their betting activities because they just wager to see a multiplication of their stake mostly in accumulator bets.
However most of the negative value bets do not really aid gamblers in making profits in the long run. Thus always seek to identify and take advantage of value bets as well as betting sites unknowingly offering value bets.